August 6, 2021

CANADIAN HOUSING AFFORDABILITY WORSENS BY THE MOST IN 17 YEARS

  • On average, mortgage payments now engulf 45% of household income, above the average since 1980 (43%).
  • The average house price increased 5.9% in Q2; 14.8% year over year, strongest since 1989.
    • $38,000 in the quarter, $89,000 from a year ago
    • For a national representative dwelling, the average savings for a down payment would now take 69 months at a 10% savings vs 57 months a year ago
  • Affordability deteriorated in all the ten markets: (worst to least) Toronto, Victoria, Vancouver, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec, Calgary and Edmonton.
    • Vancouver average price non-condo value $1,472,563. Mortgage payment as a % of income (MPPI) 84.7%
    • Toronto $1,114,667 MPPI 65.6%
    • Montreal $492,777 MPPI 35.0%
    • Calgary $505,171 MPPI 28.0%
    • Edmonton $428,613 MPPI 24.4%
  • Housing price per sq/ft in US$: Hong Kong $3,264, Tokyo $1,640, Paris $1,622, London $1,531, New York $1,431, Vancouver $946, Seattle $855, Toronto $843.

CANADA’S EMPLOYMENT – JULY 2021

  • Employment rose a robust 94k in July, but below consensus expectations of 150k. Driven by 123k new jobs in our private sector.
  • Unemployment dropped to 7.5% from 7.8%.
  • Ontario accounted for 72k, Alberta 12k and Quebec 8k new jobs.
  • Wage cost is approximately 4% higher than Feb/20 while hours worked are nearly 3% less.
  • In Alberta full-time jobs went up by 1.1% (20,100) while part-time dropped by 1.8% (7,800). With fewer people participating in the labour force the unemployment rate dropped to 8.5% vs 9.3% in June.
  • Alberta’s employment is smaller by 35,400 jobs (1.6%) compared to Feb/20 pre-pandemic.

U.S. EMPLOYMENT – JULY 2021

  • S. added 943,000 (est. 862,500). June’s number added 850,000.
  • Unemployment ticked down to 5.4% from 5.9% in June (low was Feb/20 at 3.5% & high was April/20 at 14.8%).
  • Hourly earnings up 0.4% M/M, 4% Y/Y.
  • There are 9.2 million job openings in U.S. and 9.5 million unemployed.

TIDBITS

  • Google had set September as its return-to-work date but has now pushed it back to October 18th, and all returning staff will need to show proof of vaccinations.
  • Israel has become the first country to widely roll out booster shots. As well travelers returning to Israel even if fully vaccinated will have to quarantine. Starting immediately.
  • United Airlines requires all of their U.S.-based employees to be fully vaccinated against covid-19 by Oct 25th, 2021. Employees fully vaccinated by Sept 20th will get an additional day of pay.