Apr. 9, 2021

ESTATE WEEK (APRIL 12-16, 2021)

Edmonton Community Foundation has complied a great list of online recorded sessions for Estate Week 2021 including: picking an executor, issues to be aware of, roles and duties of an executor, handling disputes etc. Please click here  for more information and to register for a session.

PIMCO’s ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FEATURING BEN BERNANKE, PAST CHAIR OF FEDERAL RESERVE AND MEMBER OF PIMCO GLOBAL ADVISORY BOARD

  • There is a close relationship between fiscal policy and monetary policy. Janet Yellen and Jay Powell will work together with fiscal policy leading the way.
  • 3 key macro trends:
    • strong rebound in economic activity this year as we reopen. There will be a quick recovery with China and the US leading the way, followed by Europe and Japan and eventually emerging markets
    • inflation will be a spike but not a spiral
    • fiscal and monetary support will continue this year but not so certain for next year
  • Fed’s Tolerance for inflation:
    • The Fed has adopted a new policy to meet their dual mandate of maximum sustainable employment and price stability.
      • Focus on average inflation of 2% and will act to accelerate inflation if it starts lagging. This means there will be times when inflation will both over shoot and under shoot the target.
      • Support maximum sustainable employment
      • No longer take pre-emptive action

CANADIAN EMPLOYMENT DATA

  • Canada added 303,000 jobs in March, nearly 3x more than expected. Employment is now within 1.5% of pre-pandemic levels.
    • Unemployment rate 7.5% vs 8.2% M/M
    • Full-time up 175,000; part-time up 128,000; self-employed up 56,000
  • Alberta added 37,100 jobs; unemployment rate 9.1% vs 9.9% M/M
    • Edmonton added 17,800 jobs; unemployment rate 11.2% vs 11.6% M/M
    • Calgary lost 900 jobs; unemployment rate 10% vs 10.6%

TIDBITS

  • Canadian spending on research and development totalled 1.59% of GDP in 2019 vs 2.02% in 2001.
  • For the first time since the 1990’s the global middle class shrank in 2020, down 150 million (equal to the populations of the UK and Germany combined). Source: Pew Research Centre
  • US Job openings rose to a 2-year high (7.37 million) in February.
    • Employers are having difficulty hiring due to child care and health concerns
  • CN and CP railways both moved record amounts of grain in Q1 (2.95 million tonnes, up 8.8% Y/Y).
  • 20% of food-output growth has been lost to climate change since the 1960’s, driving food costs higher.
    • 34 million people globally are on the brink of famine
  • California’s reservoirs are half-empty, and dryness has reached levels similar to the historic drought in 2014 and 2015.