Jul. 3, 2020

ALBERTA REBOOTING ECONOMY – SUMMARY COURTESY OF CATHERINE KEILL, KEILL & CO

  • At the height of the pandemic, 85% of businesses representing 96% of Alberta’s economy continued operating.
  • Current unemployment rate is 15%.
  • Lowering corporate income taxes to 8% as of July 1 (vs current 10%).
  • Focused on economic diversification, targeting energy, agriculture and forestry, tourism, culture, technology, aviation, aerospace and logistics, finance and fintech.
  • Introduced Innovation Employment Grant for companies in promising new industries.

GROWTH OF CHINA’S ECONOMY VS US ECONOMY

  • In 1990, China had an annual GDP of $360 billion vs US GDP of $5.9 trillion (roughly 16x larger).
  • Currently China’s GDP is $14.1 trillion (2nd largest in the world) vs US GDP $21.4 trillion.
  • On a GDP per capita basis (source: IMF) Luxembourg is richest at $113,000 GDP per person, US is 7th at $65,000 per person and China is 65th at $10,000 per person.
  • If the US grows at 2-3% and China grows at 4-9%, China will have a larger GDP by between 2025 and 2030.
  • China is the 2nd largest holder of US debt after Japan.
  • China is spending approximately $900 billion (6.5% of GDP) on COVID-related economic stimulus vs 11.1% for the US (source: World Economic Forum)
  • China is promising to share its vaccines, if and when they come, and has been sending PPE around the world, including to the US.

WHAT DOES THE SHUTDOWN OF ENBRIDGE LINE 5 MEAN TO CANADIANS?

  • A Michigan judge ordered the temporary shut-down of Enbridge Line 5 that runs from Superior, Wisconsin to refineries in Sarnia, Ontario.
  • Line 5 transports 540,000 barrels per day of oil and natural gas into the Sarnia area (about 50% of the pipeline capacity to Ontario).
  • If Line 5 is shut down, the lack of supply and Ontario’s returning demand for refined products could push gasoline prices in Ontario and Quebec significantly higher within a week. Enbridge predicts a 45% shortage should this happen.
  • Peter Tertzakian, noted energy expert, says we could end up like the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo, where we had to import our own oil using tankers and the Panama Canal. We would no longer be energy secure.

US EMPLOYMENT DATA

  • US added 4.8 million jobs in June; unemployment rate dropped to 11.1%.
  • Unemployment rate for white people fell to 10.1% from 12.4%.
  • Unemployment rate for black people fell to 15.4% from 16.8%.
  • Unemployment rate for Hispanic workers fell to 14.5% from 17.6%.
  • Unemployment rate for Asian workers fell to 13.8% from 15%.
  • Gap of 5.3% in unemployment is the widest since May 2015.
  • In August 2019, the gap between black and white workers unemployment was 2%, the narrowest since 1972.
  • Canada does not report employment data based on race.