Jun. 5, 2020

NORTH AMERICAN JOBS DATA REFLECTS REOPENING

  • CANADA: added 290,000 (+1.8%) jobs in May vs expectation of 500,000 loss.
    • COVID related absences dropped 292,000 (-8.6%), returning to jobs
    • 219,000 full-time and 70,000 part-time jobs added
    • Unemployment rate 13.7% (highest rate since records started in 1976) vs April’s 13%
      • This number is higher as students are looking for summer jobs
    • There are now 4.2 million working from home vs 5 million in April
    • Quebec up 231,000 (6.5%) jobs, Ontario down 65,000 (1%)
    • Lower wage work rebounded more quickly than overall employment (up 134,000 or 6.7%)
    • Total employment increased 84,000 for women and 206,000 for men
    • Total hours worked increased: led by construction (+19%), other services (+13.2%), retail (+11%), manufacturing (+10.9%), education (+9.4%) natural resources (+9.2%)
  • ALBERTA: added 28,200 jobs in May (27,000 full time jobs lost and 55,000 part-time jobs added); unemployment rate 15.5% vs 13.4% in April.
    • 148,000 fewer Albertans are looking for work than in February, meaning that our unemployment rate would be even higher if they were looking
    • Edmonton: unemployment rate 13.6% vs 10% in April
    • Calgary: unemployment rate 13.4% vs 10.8% in April
  • UNITED STATES: added 2.5 million jobs in May vs an expected loss of 8 million jobs.
    • Unemployment rate 13.3% vs 14.7% in April
    • There are nearly 20 million fewer jobs than the pre-COVID-19 level
    • Restaurants and bars added 1.4 million jobs; construction added 464,000
    • Accommodation industry lost an additional 148,000 jobs; government payrolls declined 585,000
    • Average hourly earnings fell $0.29 to $29.75 vs an increase of $1.35 in April (due to loss of low paying jobs)
    • Average workweek increased by ½ hour to 34.7 hours

CMHC TIGHTENS MORTGAGE RULES

  • CMHC is tightening mortgage qualification rules for high-risk borrows effective July 1:
    • Expected to affect approximately 20% of CMHC-insured borrowers
    • Minimum credit score of 680 for at least one of the borrowers
    • Reducing Gross/Total Debt servicing, expect to reduce purchasing power by approximately 10-12% for approximately 18% of previously insurable home buyers
    • Non-traditional sources of down-payment that increase indebtedness will no longer be treated as equity for insurance purposes
    • Minimum down-payment rules remain the same
  • So far Genworth MI Canada and Canada Guaranty have not announced any changes