Nov. 1, 2019

CANADA

  • More than 1 million Canadians (5.7% of the workforce) are working more than one job, the highest since 1978.
    • Almost 66% have full-time main positions in addition to their part-time positions
    • 6.3% (146,900) of Alberta’s workers hold multiple jobs vs 5.8% in 1987.
    • Rate of multiple job holding in the US is 5%
  • Alberta has a record 62,000 households relying upon income support to meet their basic financial needs.
  • Quebec increased the legal age for cannabis to 21 effective January 1, 2020.
    • Also planning to ban sale of cannabis candies and desserts
    • Legal drinking age is unchanged at 18
  • Seniors are the fastest-growing group of pot smokers…10x more than in 2012.

ENCANA CORPORATION SHOCKS CANADIANS

  • Encana announced they will change their name to Ovintiv and re-domiciling to the US to better access passive investment.
    • Encana’s roots in Canada go back to the 1800’s when CPR workers were drilling for water and found natural gas
    • Encana was formed out of the merger of Alberta Energy Company and PanCanadian Energy in 2002
  • Vermillion Energy’s CEO, Anthony Marino, was not surprised at the Encana move but doesn’t believe peers will follow. On BNN yesterday, Mr. Marino noted specific advantages to investing in Canada, for example, southeast Saskatchewan:
    • Lower royalties
    • Lower costs and those costs are in Canadian dollars
    • More profitable wells with higher margins

CENTRAL BANK ANNOUNCEMENTS AND ECONOMY

  • Bank of Canada left rates unchanged stating “the resilience of Canada’s economy will be increasingly tested as trade conflicts and uncertainty persists” and cut growth forecast to 1.5% for Q3 and Q4 GDP.
  • Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% stating that that they will ‘assess the appropriate path’ going forward. (ie: the Fed is on pause, at least for now).
  • US added 128,000 jobs in October, much better than the 80,000 expected.
    • Unemployment rate 3.6% vs 3.5% in September

TIDBITS

  • Trump administration wants to dictate how and where global auto companies make cars and parts to secure duty-free treatment under the new NAFTA.
  • Manufacturing is now the smallest share (11%) of the US economy in 72 years.
  • US non-prime borrowers collectively owe $50 billion on installment products, many of which have triple digit interest rates, like pay-day loans.