Jul. 5, 2019

June Employment

  • Canada lost 2,200 jobs vs expected gains between 4,000 and 10,000.
    • Unemployment was 5.5% vs 5.4% in May
    • Average earnings up 6.5% over the past 6 months
  • Alberta added 10,000 jobs, driven by a 36,900 increase in full time employment.
    • Unemployment was 6.6% vs 6.7% in May
    • Edmonton lost 600 jobs, unemployment 7% vs 6.8% in May
    • Calgary gained 7,500 jobs, unemployment held constant at 7%
  • US added 224,000 jobs in June vs an expected 160,000.
    • Unemployment was 3.6% vs 3.7% in May
    • Average hourly earnings were up $0.06 to $27.90 USD (up 3.1% Y/Y)

Alberta

  • Alberta’s population is expected to be 5 mill by 2027 and 6.6 mill by 2046 (4.3 mill in 2018).
    • 47% increase from international migration, 20% from other provinces, 34% organically
    • An Albertan newborn girl has an average expected lifespan of 83.7 years; 79.2 for a boy
    • The working age population (15-64) is expected to drop from 68% (2018) to 64% (2046)
    • Seniors age 65+ are expected to double in numbers to 1.1 million by 2040
    • The ‘Edmonton-Calgary Corridor’ will house 80% of Albertans by 2046 vs 76% in 2018
  • The US accounts for 87.5% of Alberta’s exports in 2018 vs 75% of Canadian exports.
    • Alberta exports to the US have grown 252% since 1999 vs 42% for Canada
    • Exports to the US represent 99.0% of Alberta’s oil and gas exports and 78.4% of Alberta’s total exports
    • Non-US International exports have increased 164% for Alberta vs 208% for Canada
  • The oil patch is Canada’s largest spender on environmental technology ($1.4 billion annually):
    • Upstream emission intensity has declined 20% since 2012
    • Canadian Natural Resources’ mine has reduced emissions by 37% in the past 6 years
  • Alberta Government launched a $2.5 million public inquiry into foreign funded environmental groups that have focused on keeping Canadian oil and gas from reaching new markets.
  • 51% of all storm-related damage in Canada since 2010 has occurred in Alberta, totaling $5 billion in insured damage.

Iran

  • Iran has threatened to restore its nuclear reactor and increase enrichment if European nations fail to offer economic relief by July 7th (after exceeding the 2015 nuclear accord stockpile limits).
  • British Marines seized an Iran oil tanker for trying to take oil to Syria, violating EU sanctions against Syria and US sanctions against Iran oil exportation.
    • Iran Revolutionary Guards have threatened to seize a British tanker in retaliation

Tidbits

  • CN transported upwards of 2.3 million tons of grain last month up 16% Y/Y.
  • Takeovers between US and international firms fell 48% to $204 billion in the first half of 2019, the lowest volume since 2014.
  • Global manufacturing has contracted for back to back months for the first time in 80 months.
  • 45% of all cars sold in Norway in the first half of 2019 were electric.
  • Apple will manufacture its new Mac Pro computer in China instead of the US.
  • HP and Dell plan to move as much as 30% of their notebook production out of China.