Dec. 7, 2018

NOVEMBER CANADIAN EMPLOYMENT

  • Employment rose by 94,000; unemployment rate dropped 0.2% to 5.6%, the lowest since comparable data became available in 1976.
  • M/M private sector employees increased by 79,000.
  • Y/Y private sector job increase of 146,000 (1.2%). Y/Y public sector grew by 48,000 (1.3%).
  • Quebec employment rose by 26,000 M/M, notably in professional, scientific, technical and educational services. Y/Y employment and unemployment both relatively unchanged.
  • Alberta employment grew by 23,700 M/M while unemployment fell 1% to 6.3%. Y/Y employment rose by 59,000 (2.6%), recently led by health care and social assistance.
  • Ontario employment increased by 20,000 M/M; unemployment held steady at 5.6%. Y/Y increase of 66,000 (0.9%) due to more fulltime work in professional, scientific, technical and educational services.
  • BC employment grew by 16,000 M/M; unemployment rose 0.3% to 4.4%. Y/Y employment increase of 43,000 (1.7%), recently led by the construction industry.
  • Saskatchewan employment increased by 5,500 M/M; unemployment fell 0.7% to 5.5%. Y/Y employment increase of 15,000 (2.7%).

CANNABIS RELATED JOBS

  • Cannabis related jobs at 10,400 in November, an increase of 7,500 (266%) Y/Y. Highest employment in Ontario (approx. 5,700).
  • Majority of jobs are in agriculture (58%) and most are permanent fulltime.
  • Average hourly wage: $29.58 compared to national average of $27.03. 79% of workers are men, median age is 35.

OIL

  • OPEC+ agreed to production cuts totaling 1.2 mmbbl/d; OPEC members cutting 800 mbbl/d and non-OPEC (Russia) cutting 400 mbbl/d. Current imbalance is closer to 2 mmbbl/d.
  • US crude inventories snapped a 10 week streak of significant builds as it saw a reduction of 7.3 mmbbl last week.
  • Two junior oil companies (Granite and Cardinal) cut dividends yesterday, Cardinal citing: “Canadian oil producers have received embarrassingly low prices due to lack of pipeline egress”.
  • Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. slashed its 2019 capital budget by $1billion down to $3.7 billion, citing a lack of shipping options as the reason for the cut.
  • US became a net oil exporter last week for the first time in 75 years.

TIDBITS

  • 72% of small business owners in Canada plan to exit their business within the next 10 years.
  • November US new jobs: 155,000 versus 198,000 expected; unemployment (3.7%) and wage gains (3.1%) came in as expected.
  • After Amazon feud, Trump administration is recommending a raise in US Postal Service rates.
  • US sets two-month deadline on Russia over 1987 Nuclear Treaty.