Nov. 16, 2018

ENERGY

  • Cdn Assoc. of Petroleum Producers estimates that the deep Western Canadian Select discount is costing Canada approx. $50 million/day for a total of $13 billion in the first 10 months of 2018.
  • Premier Rachel Notley has announced there is ‘no action’ to be taken to tackle the low price of oil because of the lack of consensus within the industry.
  • UCP party leader, Jason Kenney, says the oil glut is best solved by the private sector.
  • CN rail has come up with a patented product, ‘Canapux’ which is solidified crude encased in plastic as a safer way to move crude.
  • Saudi Arabia said OPEC and its allies should cut production by about 1.4 million boe/d.

CANADIAN FALL ECONOMIC UPDATE EXPECTATIONS

  • Finance Minister Bill Morneau will present the Canadian Fall Economic update on November 21st.
  • The feed-back the government received includes:
    • Reduce corporate taxes
    • Reduce personal taxes
    • Accelerate write-offs of capital investments
    • Not implementing the federal carbon tax
  • The expectation is that the government will be focused on an accelerated write-off of capital investments.
    • Our capital investments in machinery and equipment has been in a steady downtrend since 1998.
    • With our current equipment, we are at 85% capacity utilization
    • US is at 78% capacity utilization with increasing expenditures on new equipment, increasing volumes, reducing unit costs and in many cases improving quality
  • New rules will likely apply across all sectors so that the Government is not picking winners and losers.
  • Expected to include measures on trade, including fostering freer trade within

ONTARIO CANNABIS REGULATIONS

  • Cannabis producers will be limited to a 9.9% ownership stake in licensed marijuana retailers.
  • No minimum distance between retailers.
  • Each retailer will be allowed to operate up to 75 stores.
  • Aurora Cannabis reported that their cash cost for cannabis sold is $1.87/g down from $2.09 Y/Y; production costs $1.70/g down from $1.91.

TIDBITS

  • The number of international students enrolling in US colleges and universities fell 6.6% in 2017-2018.
  • Spending by US states topped $2 trillion for the first time ever in 2018, led by Medicaid expenditures at 27.9% of total expenditures vs 20.5% in 2008.
  • More than 1/3 of Americans plan to shop on Black Friday; 37% of shoppers intend to shop solely online.