Nov. 2, 2018

CHARTERED FINANCIAL ANALYST BREAKFAST, CALGARY, NOVEMBER 1, 2018

  • The distance between WTI and Western Canadian Select (WCS) is as wide as the distance between Alberta and Ottawa.
  • Dan Tsubouchi, Chief Market Strategist, Stream Asset Financial
    • There has been an over-reaction by ‘capital providers’ to the WCS problem. This is a global problem.
    • We are in a mis-match which has led to severe volatility…
      • In support of President Trump’s efforts to keep oil prices low, Saudi Arabia has increased oil supply by 400,000 boe/d to the US
      • US placed sanctions on Iran effective November 5th. Iran over-produced prior to the start of the sanctions; the supply disruption will be less than expected
      • November / December are seasonally weaker consumption months
    • Oil demand should be much stronger in Q2 & Q3 of 2019 to 101.6 mmbbl/d (from 99 in Q4 2018)
    • Canadian oil will start to regain capacity in mid-2019
    • Cdn pipeline capacity will increase by 375,000 boe/d H2 2019 & 830,000 boe/d Q4 2020
    • TransMountain Pipeline, no idea when it will be completed so not included in forecast
    • Bill C-69 is majorly flawed and will make ‘all’ resource development in Canada impossible

ALBERTA BUSINESS FAMILY INSTITUTE CELEBRATING THE ROSENAU FAMILY

  • Started by Gus and Colleen Rosenau in 1975 with one truck;
    • today they have 26 terminals and warehouses
    • 675 employees
    • 1200 pieces of equipment
  • Their family success was their work ethic.
  • In 1976 they were starting to make their mark then the 1980’s NEB all but sank the company; staff dedication made it possible to continue.
  • Their greatest opportunities often came at their darkest moments.
  • Their mother preached that you need to be the right person at the right time (a boss at work and a brother at home).
  • Rosenau Transport now moves more than 2.5 million pounds of goods to Northern Alberta every night.

NORTH AMERICAN JOBS DATA

Canada

  • Canada added 11,200 jobs in October vs 15,000 expected.
    • Full time jobs increased 33,900 while part-time lost 22,600
    • Unemployment rate 5.8% vs 6% M/M
    • Y/Y wage growth declined to 1.7% from 1.9%
  • Alberta lost net 2,700 jobs in October; added 8,600 full-time and lost 11,300 part-time.
    • Unemployment rate 7.3% vs 7% M/M

United States

  • US added 250,000 jobs in October vs 200,000 expected.
    • Unemployment rate remained at 3.7%
    • Average hourly earnings up 3.1% Y/Y