06-May-2011

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Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – Canada

  • 58,000 jobs added in April (forecast was 20,000).
  • Employment/population ratio is at 61.9%, a 27-month high.
  • Full time jobs were up 108,000 over 2-months, best showing since Oct 2009.
  • Ontario has more than fully recouped the jobs lost during the recession by adding 55,000 jobs in April.
  • Jobless rate at 7.6% in April, a 5-month low. Edmonton at 5.7%, Calgary 5.9%, and Toronto at 8.5%.
  • Private sector increased by 36,000, the best since Dec 2010.

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs – US

  • Nonfarm payrolls rose 244,000, expectation was only 186,000 for April.
  • The government shed 24,000 jobs in April, this is the sixth consecutive month of job cuts in the public sector.
  • Unemployment rate increased to 9% in April, from the 2-year low of 8.8%, due to a moderate rise in the size of the labour force.
  • 8 million jobs were lost in the 2007-2009 recession – job growth of 250,000 – 300,000 each month is needed to reduce unemployment.

Chinese Leadership Transition (source: Fidelity Boston)

  • Chinese are looking for a smooth transition in 2012, with no surprises or blow-ups, no public discontent, etc.
  • “China is seriously tightening” view is exaggerated.
  • Current leadership is viewed as being somewhat “mild”. There is a possibility that President-to-be Xi might be more assertive once in power.
  • Overall, the Chinese philosophy is all about continuity.