Dec. 1, 2017

Alberta

  • Fraser Institute’s report on oil and gas investment (royalties, taxes, trade barriers, environmental regulation and enforcement, quality of infrastructure, skilled labor, etc.):
    • Alberta dropped to 33rd place out of 97 global jurisdictions; 4 years ago Alberta was ranked in the top 20.
    • 50% said Alberta’s taxes discouraged investment in province’s oil and gas sector.
    • Alberta ranked 3rd out of 15 on the list of the largest reserve holders in the world.
    • The B.C rating fell from 39th to 76th place since the NDP government was elected.
    • Newfoundland and Labrador moved to 4th place from 25th. Saskatchewan fell from 4th to 7th.
  • Alberta’s economic outlook:
    • Alberta’s real GDP growth forecast for fiscal 2017-18: 2.6% in March, 3.1% in August, 4% this week; 2.5% for 2018.
    • Crude WTI price is projected at US$49/barrel. Production of 3.291 million barrels/day vs 3.322 million estimated.
    • $14.7 billion was collected in income taxes vs initial estimate of $15.1 billion.
    • Total revenue of $44.7 billion vs $44.9 billion estimate.
    • Expenses of $54.7 billion, down 0.3% from initial forecast.
    • Deficit is $10.3 billion vs $10.5 billion estimate in March.
  • Alberta’s deaths related to opioids are up 40% over last year:
    • 482 Albertans died from January to September 2017; 2 deaths per day.
    • 81% of deaths were in larger cities (Edmonton, Calgary, Red Deer, and Fort McMurray).
    • There were 143 fentanyl related overdose deaths between July and September 2017.
    • In 2016, 343 Albertans died of fentanyl-related drug overdose.

Canadian employment

  • Nationally 79,500 new jobs were added in November.
    • Unemployment rate 5.9% vs 6.3% M/M.
  • Alberta added 5,400 jobs in November, net 34,000 Y/Y.
    • Unemployment rate 7.3% vs 7.8% M/M.

U.S. Q3 economic data

  • In Q3 the U.S. economy grew faster than expected, quickest in 3 years.
    • GDP grew 3.3% annualized rate vs forecast of 3.2%.
    • Consumer spending was 2.3% vs 3.3% Q/Q.
    • After-tax corporate profits were 5.8% vs 5.7% Q/Q.
    • Business investment in equipment 10.4% vs 8.6% forecast.
    • Investment in non-residential structures dropped by 6.8%.
    • Janet Yellen says “the economy will continue to grow”.

Tidbits

  • For the first time in 30 years and in preparation for potential missile attacks from North Korea, Hawaii will start monthly statewide testing of its nuclear attack warning sirens.
  • S. Atlantic hurricane season, which started on June 1st, is the most expensive to date, estimating $202.6 billion in damages.
  • 800 million workers around the world may lose their job to robots by 2030. If automation spreads, machine operators, fast-food workers and back-office employees will be affected the most.